The Next Disney Live-Action Movie Might Be Another Flop
Disney’s live-action remake Moana has been knocked off the boat again in a pair of recent box office predictions. While the upcoming musical adventure starring Dwayne Johnson and Catherine Laga’aia will likely sit at the top of the box office when it comes out, the film is not expected to make as large of a splash as 2023’s The Little Mermaid or 2025’s Lilo & Stitch. There were a few warning signs earlier this month that this remake was not getting as much momentum as expected, and now these lower projections signal that it’s on a downward trend in a similar fashion to Supergirl. Directed by Thomas Kail and adapted by Jared Bush and Dana Ledoux Miller, the live-action Moana is set to wash onto US shores on July 10, 2026.
Live-action Moana continues to slip in new box office predictions
The Moana remake is predicted to earn $65 million to $80 million in its domestic opening weekend from July 10 to July 12. That’s the lowest box office outlook so far for the Disney feature.
This prediction comes from a June 26 long-range forecast by BoxOffice Pro, which doesn’t expect the film to match the domestic starts of the $146 million from the Lilo & Stitch remake nor the $191 million from The Lion King CGI remake. The report believes that while 2024’s Moana 2 made a whopping $139 million in its domestic opener on route to a $1.05 billion worldwide gross, the Moana remake comes too quickly after the original 2016 animated film. Other Disney remakes have banked on nostalgia, reviving beloved properties that have been out of the scene for decades, but it might be too soon for Moana to get the same boost.
This $65 million to $80 million range isn’t terrible, per se, considering that the only other movie coming out in the same week as Moana is the horror film Evil Dead Burn. But it does show a troubling downward turn for the remake. A June 26 analysis from BoxOfficeTheory has the film earning a domestic start of $81 million, or in the range between $70 million and $89 million. This is about an 8% drop from its original prediction for the movie at the start of June.
It’s rare to see box office projections for a summer blockbuster dip like this, especially for a film that has the full weight of Disney’s marketing machine behind it. But we’ve seen Supergirl and other major films flop at the box office too, so it’s possible that Moana might share a similar fate.
While we don’t have exact numbers for Moana’s budget, a May forecast from Puck estimates it to be around $200 million. Under normal circumstances, this would mean that the remake would need to pass the $500 million mark to break even at the box office, but the site believes that the feature will need to make $575 million to be considered a success. This target would be around the $569 million that The Little Mermaid remake made at the global box office, so that might be a tall order for Moana if these predictions continue to hold.
It’s likewise concerning that Moana is coming out amid Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters, two other family-friendly animated features that will eat its lunch, so to speak. While the Pixar film will have been out for a month when Moana drops, it’s expected to have a strong leggy run after having the highest domestic opener so far this year. Meanwhile, Minions & Monsters (July 1) is predicted to have a $83 million domestic start over its 5-day weekend, making it a worthy competitor in its second week to Moana. Then one week after the remake comes out, The Odyssey (July 17) is expected to have a $118 million domestic start that will sweep the board.
Source: Comingsoon.net