Toy Story 5 Is Expected to Break Several Box Office Records

Pixar’s much-anticipated Toy Story 5 has received a box office prediction that’s off the charts. While this is the first time that Andrew Stanton will be directing a Toy Story film, he has been a writer for three movies in the franchise and was the director for many of the studio’s most beloved features, like Wall-E and Finding Nemo. Trailers for this fifth installment reveal that Jessie (Joan Cusack) has come into her own as the new leader of the toys but calls for the aid of Woody (Tom Hanks) and Buzz Lightyear (Tim Allen) when their eight-year-old owner Bonnie (Scarlett Spears) becomes more interested in playing with her Lilypad tablet (Greta Lee). Toy Story 5 is scheduled to release in the United States on June 19, 2026.

Pixar’s Toy Story 5 receives an extremely high box office prediction

An early box office prediction for Toy Story 5 has the film earning a whopping $130 million to $160 million in its domestic opening weekend from June 19 to June 21, 2026. For its full theatrical run in the US and Canada, it’s expected to bring in $465 million to $602 million.

These new projections come from analytics site BoxOfficeTheory (by way of a thread on the r/boxoffice Reddit), which notes that “Pixar has yet to miss with a direct sequel in the Toy Story line with nearly $2.9 billion in global box office across four entries since 1995.” This predicted range of $130M to $160M would challenge The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131 million as the largest domestic opener in 2026. Other movies with impressive domestic starts this year include Michael ($97 million), Project Hail Mary ($80 million), The Devil Wears Prada 2 ($76 million), and Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu ($81 million).

If Toy Story 5 is able to earn anywhere between the predicted $465M to $602M range for its entire domestic haul, it would likewise set a new record in 2026 over The Super Galaxy Movie’s $424 million. The Pixar film will need to cross the $983 million mark at the global box office to become the highest-grossing movie this year, a feat that is quite achievable given that the last two Toy Story movies both passed the $1 billion mark (and tickets have notably increased in price over the last seven years since 2019’s Toy Story 4). There has been no official report on Toy Story 5’s production budget yet, but both Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 each cost Disney $200 million to make, so that gives us a rough estimate to work with.

The report underscores the numerous advantages that Toy Story 5 has amid the stacked theatrical calendar this summer. The film has an experienced director with Stanton, a relevant storyline where parents are increasingly concerned that their children are becoming too addicted to their phones and tablets, and a star-studded ensemble cast that also features Keanu Reeves, Alan Cumming, Bad Bunny, and Conan O’Brien. While the 2022 spinoff Lightyear was a box office bomb, only bringing home $226 million on a $200 million budget, it should have little bearing on this sequel’s success.

While Toy Story 5 will not be the only blockbuster vying for attention in June, most of them have tiptoed around this Pixar juggernaut instead of the other way around. Both Masters of the Universe and Scary Movie (which was moved up a week) are releasing two weeks before it on June 5, while Disclosure Day is arriving one week beforehand on June 12. Its main rivals will be the family-friendly Supergirl on June 26 and its fellow animated sequel Minions & Monsters on July 1. If anything, these four competitors will need to be careful that Toy Story 5 doesn’t grab most of the attention and steal too much of their momentum at the box office.

Stanton has hinted that Toy Story 5 will not be the last entry in the beloved franchise, and he has explained why Jessie has effectively replaced Woody as the the leader of the toys.

Source: Comingsoon.net