Scary Movie 6 Gets a Frighteningly Good Box Office Forecast
The upcoming parody film Scary Movie 6 has received a solid box office prediction in part due to the Wayans Brothers finally returning to the franchise. It’s been more than a decade since 2013’s Scary Movie 5, and more than two decades since the Wayans appeared in 2001’s Scary Movie 2 before they left the film series. While Keenan Ivory Wayans isn’t the director for the reboot, he serves as one of the producers and writers for the Paramount Pictures production. Meanwhile, Marlon and Shawn Wayans are both writers and actors, reprising their roles as Shorty Meeks and Ray Wilkins. Other original Scary Movie cast members, like Anna Faris and Regina Hall, will be making a comeback too.
The Wayans Brothers’ return bolster Scary Movie 6’s box office predictions
An early box office prediction for Scary Movie 6 has the film earning somewhere between $25 million and $35 million during its domestic opening weekend from June 5 to June 7, 2026.
This projection is based on a May 8 analysis from BoxOfficeTheory, which gives a caveat that its forecast is “volatile” for several reasons. Scary Movie 6 is a live-action comedy, a genre that has gradually fallen out of favor amid high-grossing action blockbusters and family-friendly animated films. On the other hand, the horror genre has grown tremendously during this time, and as the film’s trailer shows, it parodies fan favorites like Sinners, Weapons, Get Out, and Final Destination. There’s plenty of material for the comedy to lampoon, so along with the nostalgic reunion of the OG Scary Movie cast, the report believes that it “could appeal to a crossover of Black communities, 2000s-era nostalgic audiences, and Gen Zers.”
Fortunately, this $25M-$35M range is about twice as high as the $14 million domestic opener for Scary Movie 5, which earned a worldwide total of $78 million. While that wasn’t a huge haul, that movie’s lower budget of $20 million meant that it was a box office success. On that front, Scary Movie 6’s budget has not yet been disclosed, so it’s unclear what benchmark the film will need to hit to break even. One of the reasons actress Shannon Elizabeth is not in Scary Movie 6 is because, as Marlon Wayans said, there are “toooooo many people coming back.” This suggests that the film’s budget could be higher than its predecessor’s due to its greater star power.
One of the obstacles that Scary Movie 6 will need to overcome is its fellow competition in what is a packed summer theatrical schedule. It was revealed in March that the movie had been moved up a week from its former release date of June 12 to June 5, 2026. Marlon Wayans said on Instagram that this was due to the “overwhelming response” to the film’s trailer, but another likely reason is that Pixar’s much-anticipated Toy Story 5 is coming out on June 19.
This isn’t the only movie that has sidestepped around the animated blockbuster, with Amazon MGM Studios’ Masters of the Universe (June 5) and Fathom Entertainment’s The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act (June 4) both releasing around the same time as Scary Movie 6. In fact, both films are expected to be mid-sized competitors — at the time of writing, Masters of the Universe is projected to have a $25 million domestic opener while TADC: The Last Act is looking at a $10 million domestic opener — that could draw casual moviegoers away. The hope, though, is that these three films won’t cannibalize each other’s audiences too much since they are in different genres.
Marlon Wayans explained that his 25-year absence from the Scary Movie franchise was caused by prior disagreements with Dimensions Films founder Bob Weinstein. But he has returned to the series due to the “dismantling of the Weinstein regime” and support from his father.
Source: Comingsoon.net