Michael Box Office Predictions Are Off The Wall
The upcoming biopic Michael continues to soar with thrillingly high box office predictions. One forecast in mid-March had the Lionsgate film earning somewhere between $52 million and $65 million in its domestic opener, but a new projection blows that out of the water. Interest in the film, directed by Antoine Fuqua and starring Michael Jackson’s nephew Jaafar Jackson in the titular role, has been undeniable. Back in November 2025, a teaser trailer for the movie broke records by raking in over 116 million views within a day. It’s been this level of hype that has pushed many to believe that Michael, which is slated to release on April 24, 2026 in the US, will optimistically cross the $1 billion mark worldwide.
How much will Michael biopic earn at the box office?
Michael is expected to rake in $80 million to $90 million during its domestic opening weekend, as projected by March 27 report from BoxOffice Pro.
This is more than a 50% increase over a prior prediction for the film, but the new forecast believes that the King of Pop’s status as a global musical icon will be a substantial draw. The closest comparison for the film would be the 2018 Freddie Mercury biopic Bohemian Rhapsody, which came close to breaking the $1 billion mark with a box office total of $910 million. The majority of its success came from its $694 million international haul over its $216 million domestic total, though it still had a solid domestic opener of $51 million. This new prediction for Michael far exceeds that benchmark.
On the flipside, another forecast has a more sobering look. A March 27 analysis from BoxOfficeTheory remains impressed with Michael’s early access sales and is open to the possibility that the movie could surge closer to its release date, but notes that its first day of general shows are comparatively behind other blockbusters like Wicked and The Devil Wears Prada 2. (In fact, it should be noted that the biopic will face strong competition when The Devil Wears Prada 2 drops on May 1.) As a result, the report has only modestly increased its projection for Michael to $65 million, in a range of $52 million to $75 million, for its domestic opener. It has the film earning $175 million (somewhere between $135 million and $271 million) over its entire domestic run.
The wide range of projections for Michael show how difficult it’s been to predict despite its many advantages to become a global sensation. Michael Jackson still has over 60 million listeners ever month on Spotify and his popularity means that the film has the ability to overcome any middling reviews it receives from critics. While Jaafar Jackson will be making his acting debut in the movie, his familial link to the icon himself will be a significant and compelling curiosity for audiences, not to mention the cast that includes Colman Domingo, Miles Teller, and Nia Long. The film’s screenwriter John Logan, who wrote the screenplay for Gladiator (2000) and Sweeney Todd (2007), is a powerhouse is his field, and one of its producers is Bohemian Rhapsody’s own Graham King.
Meanwhile, Michael faces a lot of pressure to be a blockbuster. The production budget for the film stands at $155 million, as reported by Variety, which means that it will need to bring in around $390 million worldwide to break even (that’s 2.5 times the budget). This is being generous too, since the third act of the film needed to be rewritten and reshot due to legal issues with it including a depiction of the 13-year-old Jordan Chandler, whose father accused Jackson of abusing in 1993. This has mired the film in controversy, though that has also brought more attention to the biopic. At any rate, if Michael manages to bring in as many viewers as Bohemian Rhapsody did, the $390 million benchmark shouldn’t be a great hurdle for the movie to glide over with a moonwalk.
Source: Comingsoon.net