Oscar Experts Are Split on One Battle After Another Win Odds

With the 2026 Oscars arriving this weekend, many are wondering how many awards One Battle After Another will take home. Having won multiple Best Picture prizes at other major awards shows, like the BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice, the star-studded film directed by Paul Thomas Anderson is the clear frontrunner for the 98th Academy Awards, which will air on Sunday, March 15. The latest odds from several prediction markets believe it will win the most golden statues at the ceremony, ahead of the other Best Picture nominees, like Sinners, Hamnet, and Frankenstein. However, experts are widely divided on how many Oscars the movie will earn by the end of the show.

How many Oscars will One Battle After Another win?

It’s predicted that One Battle After Another will win at least 5 Oscars at the upcoming Academy Awards, with the majority believing it will gather a few more than that.

Based on betting markets Kalshi and Polymarket (as of March 13), most have their money on the Leonardo DiCaprio-led movie earning 6 Academy Awards. More specifically, the spread has it winning a total of 5 Oscars at 25% to 27%, 6 Oscars at 30% to 32%, and 7 Oscars at 20% to 21%. There are even a handful who think it will be 8 Oscars (7% to 8%), though on the flipside, some think that it will be upset in one or more categories, most likely by Sinners given its momentum surge from the Actor Awards. 6% to 9% have placed their bets on One Battle After Another earning 4 Oscars, while 2% to 7% think it will receive only 3. (ComingSoon’s Brandon Schreur predicts Sinners will win Best Picture and Best Director.)

That said, within the last couple of days there has been greater confidence that the film will overperform, at least based on Polymarket. The bets placed on it winning 5 or 6 awards has dipped by around 12% to 16%, while the one on it getting 7 awards has increased by 17%.

With only a few days before the 2026 Oscars, the odds have One Battle After Another in a strong lead in seven categories. Among the topline awards, Sean Penn’s performance as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw has him at the front for Best Supporting Actor at around 73%, over Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgard at around 14% to 16% and Sinners’ Delroy Lindo at 10% to 11%. More of a lock is Paul Thomas Anderson to win Best Director at a whopping 92% to 93% over the rest.

As for the technical categories, One Battle After Another is favored to win in Best Cinematography, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Film Editing. Out of the three categories, it more or less has the lock on Ryan Coogler winning Best Adapted Screenplay. In part because of that, the film is predicted to win Best Picture at around 75% of the bet, above Sinners which has 23%. That’s not negligible, though, and Sinners also has about a 20% shot to make an upset as well in Best Cinematography.

Where One Battle After Another is most likely to snatch its seventh Oscar win would be in Best Supporting Actress. Betters believe that Teyana Taylor, who recently teased a sequel for the film, has a 30% to 32% chance of supplanting the 47% lead by Amy Madigan for her performance in Weapons. The category is by far the most competitive, as Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku is polling at roughly 17%. Taylor did win the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress over Madigan, but Madigan received the Critics’ Choice and the Actor Award so she has more momentum going into the show.

One Battle After Another is available to watch on HBO Max, Hulu, YouTube, Roku, and Sling TV.

Source: Comingsoon.net